Using the striking distance theory that lightning leaders will strike the nearest grounded point on their last jump to earth corresponding to the striking distance, the probability of striking a point on a structure in the presence of other points can be estimated. The lightning strokes are divided into deciles having an average peak current and striking distance. The striking distances are used as radii from the points to generate windows of approach through which the leader must pass to reach a designated point. The projections of the windows on a horizontal plane as they are rotated through all possible angles of approach define an area that can be multiplied by the decile stroke density to arrive at the probability of strokes with the window average striking distance. The sum of all decile probabilities gives the cumulative probability for all strokes. The techniques can be applied to NASA-Kennedy launch pad structures to estimate the lightning protection effectiveness for the crane, gaseous oxygen vent arm, and other points. Streamers from sharp points on the structure provide protection for surfaces having large radii of curvature. The effects of nearby structures can also be estimated.